Success Means Knowing When to Fold

Texas Hold ‘em is a game of skill.  Over the years, successful players like David Sklansky, have developed complex algorithms to guide their decision making when a particular hand is dealt.  This mathematical approach helps improve their win probability – but it’s not the total answer.  What does the raise from the player past the big blind position mean?  Why did the person across from me scratch her head before bumping the bet again?  What do I do now?

Winning players understand that “bankroll management” is every bit as important as being able to remember the cards that have been dealt.  No player enters a game with unlimited funds, and once the once you have are gone, it’s “game over”.  Successful players understand that folding a hand is not a sign of weakness; it merely reflects your understanding that your hand is not as strong as your opponent’s. There is no stigma attached to folding if this act lets you conserve your money for a better future hand.

It’s the same in our world – or at least it should be.  Bid and proposal funds are never unlimited, and misuse of these scarce resources offer a quick path to the unemployment line.  But capture managers HATE walking away from deals.  They believe this will be seen as a sign of weakness – and this unhelpful approach is reinforced by way too many corporate executives who don’t understand the difference between a full pipeline, and a productive pipeline.

We have two clients that compete in the same general market.  One is extremely satisfied with its 35% win rate; the other is horrified that it only wins 90% of the time.  The first company approach to bid submittal is “if his has a pulse, bid it!”.  Their capture process is undisciplined; gate reviews are opportunities to display pretty PowerPoint slides to an audience that always says “Yes!”. The second has a more organized, more disciplined approach.  The criteria for passing a gate review are clearly defined, and lack of preparedness – lack of needed information for effective decision making – guarantees that a pursuit will be ended on the spot.  Guess which organization spends less B&P dollars overall?  Guess which organization is always looking for “successful” capture managers?

Conserve your resources.  Effective Price To Win helps you identify opportunities that meet your business objectives that you truly can win.  As for the rest? Well, poker legend Stu Unger puts it this way: “Fold and live to fold again.”